August Week 2 -2025

BITCOIN RESET
Tariffs, Deficits, and Why Bitcoin Keeps Gaining Ground

If you have heard Lyn Alden say “nothing stops this train,” here is the simple version. The train is fiscal dominance. The United States runs large, sticky deficits. Interest costs are surging because the 40 year slide in rates is over. Tariffs help a little in the short run, they are basically a tax that raises hundreds of billions, but they do not change the long term math.

That is why the Fed looks less powerful than headlines suggest. A 25 or 50 basis point tweak does not move the real engine, which is federal spending and revenue. Even a big cut could backfire. Short rates might fall while long rates refuse to budge. The dollar could weaken, emerging markets might breathe, and commodities could run, which risks another inflation pulse. Yield suppression tools may show up in a real crisis, but nobody wants to wear the yield curve control badge unless they must.

So where does Bitcoin fit? Think parallel system, not perfect hedge. In a world of 180 currencies that debase at different speeds, Bitcoin offers a scarce, portable store of value with fast settlement. Most people treat stablecoins as the checking account and Bitcoin as the savings account, which makes sense. As institutions buy more, volatility gradually cools, which makes it easier to use.

About the cycle. This one looks like step ups, then long, choppy sideways, not the wild blow offs of the past. Watch for true euphoria, things like market value pulling far above on chain cost basis, and frothy premiums on “treasury” wrappers. Altcoin treasury companies are mainly speculation, and they can add forced sellers if stress hits. Sovereign reserves will likely matter more next cycle than this one.

Bottom line, tariffs can slow the train. They do not stop it. In that world, owning some Bitcoin is less about hype and more about having options.

AI RESET
Chat GPT-5 Marks Where Chatbots End and The Agentic AI Begins 

If you’ve been thinking of ChatGPT as a smart search box, it’s time to update that mental model. In Cleo Abram’s sit-down with Sam Altman, the headline is simple: GPT-5 isn’t just answering questions, it’s starting to do things. Think “agent” more than “chatbot.” You give it a goal (“pull Nvidia’s latest filings and build a DCF,” “draft a deck,” “book the flights that fit these constraints”), and it can spin up a virtual workspace, browse, click, fill forms, run code, and hand you the finished work product while you watch and approve key steps.

That shift has real consequences for how we work. The grunt stuff, research, data wrangling, formatting, gets automated. Your job moves up a level: set intent, review assumptions, make decisions. It’s like upgrading from a calculator to an analyst who can use software. And because the model is multimodal, it can juggle text, images, and audio in the same flow, which makes it useful for messier, real-world tasks.

None of this is magic. The video makes clear there are guardrails and growing pains. Agents ask permission before risky actions (purchases, emails, logins). They can still stall, misread a page, or get blocked by a site. Speed and reliability vary with task complexity. Cost and usage caps matter if you’re running lots of automated jobs. Translation: it’s powerful today, but it still needs your oversight.

So what should you do now? Start small and pointed. Pick repeatable tasks, weekly research packets, spreadsheet updates, travel planning, competitor monitoring, and let the agent handle them end to end. Build a quick review checklist, sources used, assumptions, edge cases, and keep approvals on for anything sensitive. As you gain confidence, stack tasks and tighten the loop between your prompt, its actions, and your feedback.

Bottom line: GPT-5 marks the moment AI steps out of the chat window and into your workflow. The edge goes to teams that treat it like a capable junior, clear goals, tight supervision, and plenty of reps.

401K RESET
401(k)s Get the Greenlight for Bitcoin

The White House’s new executive order cracks open a long-shut door: the ability for 401(k) plans to include digital assets. It does not flip a switch overnight. Instead, it directs regulators, chiefly the Department of Labor, to spell out how plan fiduciaries could prudently add crypto exposure, likely inside professionally managed funds rather than as a pick-your-token menu. Think months, not days, before anything lands in your plan.

Why this matters is simple math. U.S. retirement accounts hold tens of trillions of dollars, and 401(k)s are a giant slice of that. Even small, capped allocations translate into real demand. More important, it normalizes crypto in the one account most Americans actually use. The spot bitcoin ETFs already solved much of the operational plumbing, including pricing, custody, and reporting, so this policy direction is really about giving committees a clear process and a safe harbor, not about picking winners.

Expect caution. ERISA still rules the day, so any exposure will likely live inside diversified vehicles such as target-date funds, balanced funds, or collective investment trusts, with strict limits and ongoing oversight. Some plans may get there faster through existing brokerage windows that already allow ETFs, while others will wait for fresh guidance. Either way, the conversation has moved from “absolutely not” to “under what conditions?”

Critics will warn about volatility. Fair. But bonds have delivered years of pain in real terms, and mega-cap equities now swing as much as many digital assets. If you believe people will live and invest longer, and that the digital economy keeps compounding, then a measured sleeve of crypto inside a tax-advantaged plan looks less like speculation and more like diversification.

Bottom line: the executive order does not mandate crypto in your 401(k); it makes it feasible. If regulators deliver workable standards, more investment committees will at least consider a small, professionally managed allocation. For savers, that is progress, access without abandoning prudence.

DISCLAIMER:
This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions or investments. Please be careful and do your own research.