February Week 4 - 2026

BITCOIN RESET
AI Disruption and Bitcoin’s Shifting Role in a Deflationary World

In a compelling discussion at Bitcoin Investor Week, veteran market strategist Jordi Visser outlined a transformative thesis for the next decade, arguing that the rise of artificial intelligence is the primary driver reshaping global markets. Visser posits that the world is currently entering a period of "multiple compression" for software companies, as AI begins to disrupt traditional knowledge work and enterprise business models. He notes a striking and previously unrecognized correlation between Bitcoin and software ETFs, suggesting that investors are currently grouping Bitcoin into a "growth bucket" alongside tech assets that are vulnerable to AI-driven deflation.

Despite the recent downward pressure on both software and crypto, Visser remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term scarcity. He differentiates Bitcoin from software by categorizing it as a "scarce commodity" that, like copper and silver, cannot be replicated or destroyed by AI. Visser believes the true utility of blockchain technology is now emerging through stablecoins, which processed $11 trillion in volume in January 2026, surpassing Mastercard’s total annual volume for the previous year. This "utilization phase" of crypto is expected to accelerate as AI agents begin transacting autonomously using stablecoins, further challenging incumbent financial intermediaries that rely on transaction fees.

Looking ahead, Visser describes a "dystopian" transition characterized by a K-shaped economy where knowledge workers face job displacement while manufacturing and "dirty" commodity-based sectors thrive. He expects the U.S. dollar to weaken as capital flows toward manufacturing hubs like Brazil, which possess the critical minerals required for the AI revolution. For investors, Visser recommends pivoting away from the "abundance" of code-based assets and toward "scarcity," asserting that Bitcoin will eventually decouple from software to serve as a global, democratized store of value in an increasingly borderless world.

ECONOMIC RESET
Administration Signals Swift Workarounds After Supreme Court Strikes Down Tariffs

A recent landmark decision by the Supreme Court has struck down the use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) for implementing tariffs, sparking celebrations in corporate boardrooms and among some segments of the public. The ruling potentially opens the door for companies to seek massive refunds, with estimated collections ranging from $120 billion to $179 billion that could theoretically be returned to importers. While this decision has been hailed as a victory by opponents of the trade barriers, analysts warn that the relief may be short-lived, as the Trump administration has already signaled its intent to implement immediate workarounds to maintain its trade policy.

President Trump responded to the ruling by announcing a new 10% global tariff, to be imposed under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. This provision allows for temporary import surcharges of up to 15% to address serious balance-of-payments deficits and does not require a formal study for implementation. Additionally, the administration is initiating several Section 301 investigations, a more established tool used to combat unfair trade practices. Beyond these, officials have pointed to Section 338, often described as a "nuclear option," which allows the president to impose duties on countries found to be discriminating against U.S. commerce without the need for an agency report.

The administration’s ultimate goal remains the rebalancing of trade and the encouragement of domestic production. By making foreign goods more expensive, the policy aims to decrease the national trade deficit and incentivize companies to manufacture within the United States. While the legal battle continues, the economic impact of the previous tariffs is already felt, with studies showing a 76 basis point increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for all goods last year. Furthermore, experts suggest that even if refunds are issued, they are unlikely to result in lower prices for consumers, as corporations are expected to retain the funds while maintaining current pricing levels.

AI RESET
Musk Predicts Space Will Become the Most Cost-Effective Hub for AI

In a far-reaching interview with Dwarkesh Patel, Elon Musk outlined a bold vision for the future of artificial intelligence, predicting that the cheapest place to generate AI tokens within the next 36 months will be in space. Musk argues that the primary limiting factor for AI scaling on Earth is no longer chip production, but rather the availability and cost of electricity. Outside of China, global electrical output has remained relatively flat, creating a "hardware wall" that terrestrial data centers are already beginning to hit. By moving compute infrastructure into orbit, AI operations can bypass the constraints of Earth's power grids and tap directly into abundant solar energy.

Musk explained that the economics of space-based data centers are becoming increasingly favorable due to the lack of weather and atmosphere in orbit. Solar cells for space can be manufactured more cheaply and at higher volumes because they do not require heavy framing or protective glass to survive environmental events. Both SpaceX and Tesla are currently building toward 100 gigawatts of solar cell production to support this transition. Furthermore, Musk’s SpaceX is positioning itself to become a massive hyperscaler, with the goal of launching more AI compute capacity than the cumulative amount currently existing on Earth. He projects that as few as 20 to 30 Starships could support up to 10,000 launches per year, providing the necessary lift capacity to build out this orbital infrastructure.

While acknowledging the technical challenges of maintaining GPUs in space, Musk emphasized that the necessity for rapid scaling will drive unconventional solutions. He believes that his company, xAI, will lead the industry because of its ability to scale hardware faster than traditional research labs. By leaning into the "acute pain" of solving complex engineering bottlenecks—such as orbital thermal management and high-volume satellite deployment—Musk remains optimistic that space-based AI will provide an order of magnitude increase in scaling potential over the next several years.

DISCLAIMER:
This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions or investments. Please be careful and do your own research.