October Week 4 - 2025

BITCOIN RESET
The Controlled Great Reset!

Gold is ripping, Bitcoin is slipping, and that contrast is shaping the market story of late 2025. Record peacetime deficits, sticky inflation, and fading foreign demand for long dated treasuries form the backdrop, the United States cannot hike aggressively without stressing the debt, and it cannot print freely without hurting confidence, so policymakers look for time, credibility, and collateral.

Here is the theory, let gold run first, rebuild trust in the dollar system, and keep Bitcoin quiet until the transition is in place. The logic is simple, the United States holds meaningful gold, it holds no switch over Bitcoin, so a higher gold price can help recapitalize balance sheets in a way that feels familiar to central banks. Meanwhile, stablecoins spread dollar liquidity worldwide, short dated treasury collateral circulates through crypto rails, and near cash demand helps fund the deficit while the plumbing is adjusted.

Price action lines up with this view, gold around new highs, Bitcoin lagging after a historic liquidation, risk markets chasing the asset that official balance sheets already recognize. A gold first path does not negate Bitcoin, it may prepare the stage for it. If gold absorbs the first wave of monetary stress, Bitcoin remains the neutral settlement asset that no state can reprice by decree, it is portable, finite, and outside any single jurisdiction.

Another reading exists, capital rotation can be cyclical, some investors think the cycle has peaked, they rotate from Bitcoin to gold and equities, they reach for what feels safe. Either way, the signal is consistent, gold is carrying the narrative now, Bitcoin still anchors the endgame for those who want self custody and scarcity that policy cannot change.

If the goal is to survive a long period of debt devaluation, a dual stance makes sense, hold the legacy hedge that states favor, and hold the digital hedge that nobody controls, gold builds the bridge, Bitcoin is the destination.

TECH RESET
The Diversification Illusion

The index apocalypse is not a meme, it is a concentration story hiding in plain sight. The S&P 500 advertises five hundred companies, yet roughly forty cents of every dollar tracks the same ten mega caps, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Tesla, Broadcom, Berkshire, and JP Morgan. Equal weight versions that give each company the same tiny slice have lagged by more than twenty percentage points since late twenty twenty two, which implies the other four hundred ninety names are ballast, not balance.

Passive flows amplify the tilt. Most new equity dollars arrive through index products that buy more of what has already gone up, regardless of valuation or cash flow. When momentum turns, the weights do not adjust in real time, which can turn a tidy marketing story about diversification into a single crowded trade. Meanwhile, corporate debt loads and a growing population of zombie firms create fragility that an index wrapper can conceal but not cure.

Nominal charts also flatter to deceive. Money supply grew violently in the early twenty twenties, and a hefty slice of the index rally since then is simply liquidity lift. Adjust for the flood of new dollars and real gains look far thinner. Dividends do not rescue you when they arrive in a currency that buys less each year.

Bitcoin offers a different profile. Over the past five years it has delivered a ten times nominal increase, while operating on a fixed supply schedule, twenty one million forever, enforced by code and a global network. Its deeper spot liquidity and thick order books helped it hold up better than many high beta tokens during recent market stress, and its correlation to equities remains low enough to matter when traditional risk wobbles.

If your plan is to own the market, first check what the market actually owns. A portfolio that is forty percent the same ten stories is not a safety net, it is a bet. Consider mixing in assets that are scarce by design, portable by default, and hostile to monetary decay.

AI RESET
The Illusion of Infinite Growth

I think it is important to entertain the contrarian angle when it comes revolutionary innovations. AI which is touted as the biggest technological invention in the history of mankind. Shouldn’t it be heavily scrutinized?. I think so, for starters the artificial intelligence boom has ignited the largest speculative wave in modern history. Analysts now estimate the AI bubble to be seventeen times (7X) the size of the dot com frenzy and four times (4X) larger than the 2008 housing collapse. At the heart of this surge sits good old OpenAI, a company that remains unprofitable yet signs trillion dollar commitments while burning through billions each year. Its web of circulating deals with Microsoft, Nvidia, Oracle, AMD, and Broadcom create this illusion of endless prosperity. For example, Nvidia invest billions in OpenAI. OpenAI turns around and purchases chips from Nvidia. The money circulates between investors and suppliers, and each report record growth on paper.

This pattern mirrors previous cycles of excess. Artificial profits inflate stock prices, and retirement portfolios swell while real productivity lags. The “Magnificent Seven” tech giants now account for more than a third of the S&P 500’s value, meaning much of the global economy depends on the success of just a few companies that are deeply intertwined in the AI speculation bet. When one falters, the system trembles.

The concern extends beyond accounting tricks. Governments, corporations, and universities have poured hundreds of billions into AI infrastructure even as inflation, unemployment, and housing costs continue to rise. The promise that AI would free us to be more creative has instead replaced entry level jobs and increased workloads.

History shows every decade ends with a correction. The next one may come from the AI sector, and when it does, the losses will not remain confined to Silicon Valley. Everyone is going to feel this one, and of course taxpayers and workers, will bear the cost. The architects of this new digital empire seem to know it too, because they are all quietly building their underground bunkers while publicly preaching progress.

Could it be that the illusion of infinite growth may be the most dangerous creation artificial intelligence has ever produced?

We will soon find out!

DISCLAIMER:
This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions or investments. Please be careful and do your own research.